🧠 Serenity 实时观点

追踪 @aleabitoreddit 关于 AI 基础设施与半导体的研究观点 · 自动翻译为中文

🧠实时观点

看空$NVDA$GOOGL$AMZN

长期更看好上游卡脖子环节而非$NVDA,超大规模厂商ASIC将分流英伟达需求

嗯,我长期更倾向于你提到的所有上游卡脖子环节而不是 $NVDA,因为那些将获得最大重估(英伟达已经是世界最大公司了)。我相当确定超大规模厂商的ASIC最终会分流 $NVDA 的需求,比如 $GOOGL 的TPU、$AMZN 的Trainium项目。不会太...

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@darkseidzz hmm, i prefer all your upstream chokepoints over $NVDA long term since those will be re-rated the most (nvidia already largest company in the world) pretty sure hyperscaler ASICs would eventually siphon off $NVDA demand like $GOOGL TPU, $AMZN trainium programs. wouldn't be too

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中性$NVDA$MU$PL

市场调整,龙头股$NVDA跌4.87%,$MU跌7.03%,高贝塔$PL跌22%

市场调整的有趣时光。从领头羊 $NVDA 下跌4.87%到 $MU 下跌7.03%。高贝塔股票如 $PL 下跌22.02%。有趣的是看到媒体总是试图解释:「美光遭受创纪录暴跌,因博通给芯片股蒙上阴影」博通预测...

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Fun times with market corrections. Leaders from $NVDA down -4.87% to $MU down -7.03%. High beta names like $PL down -22.02%. Funny to see media always trying to explain like: "Micron suffers record wipeout as Broadcom casts a shadow over chip stocks " Broadcom projected https://t.co/D1cE7sjKBs

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看多$TSM

台积电封测子公司欣铨(3374)看起来有趣,市值21.8亿美元并有CPO计划

欣铨(3374)看起来也是个有趣的想法(台积电封装/测试子公司)。市值约21.8亿美元。$TSM COUPE大规模生产从2026年下半年开始。而且...他们有「与子公司欣铨积极追求CPO机会」的计划。这真的很...

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Xintec (3374) also looks like an interesting idea (TSMC packaging/test subsidary). MC is at ~ $2.18B. $TSM COUPE mass production starts this half, H2 2026. and... they have plans for "Aggressively pursuing CPO opportunities with subsidiaries Xintec". This is just very https://t.co/e3NXsmQd6v https://t.co/epQLpXoDsF

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看多$SIVE

对冲基金联合创始人5月离职,可能因$SIVE上涨导致亏损

「埃里克·安德森选择在5月份结束雇佣关系。」该对冲基金联合创始人经理的离职,可能是他们公司因 $SIVE 上涨而倒闭的重要信号。

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@Ailisatlx @zGwmby "Eric Andersson chose to end his employment during the month of May." The founding co-manager of that hedge fund quitting is probably a big sign their firms is going under from $SIVE going up.

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看多$SIVE

嘲讽对冲基金因$SIVE年内亏损31%,认为该公司要倒闭

按这个速度,他们公司因 $SIVE 年初至今-31.02%的表现要倒闭了。

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@zGwmby At this rate their firm is going under being YTD -31.02% from $SIVE. https://t.co/oqh6g6fWjj

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看多$SIVE$AAOI$TSM$NVDA$TSEM$SOI

光子学股票排名:$SIVE第一,$AAOI第二,还有FOCI等

$SIVE 是第一,$AAOI 是第二,上面用词有误。总体看好:- $SIVE(CPO激光器)- $AAOI(端到端可插拔/CPO)- FOCI(FAU+无源器件 $TSM COUPE / $NVDA)- 顺芯(封装/测试)- 胜芯科技(代工)- $TSEM(代工)- $SOI(硅光)-

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@ClewyCat $SIVE is #1, $AAOI is #2 used wrong wording above. Generally a fan of: - $SIVE (CPO lasers) - $AAOI (End-to-End pluggable/cpo) - Foci (FAU +passive components $TSM COUPE / $NVDA) - Shunsin (Packaging/Test) - Win Semi (foundry) - $TSEM (foundry) - $SOI (silicon photonics) -

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中性$AAOI

$AAOI 主要是可插拔业务但也有大量CPO敞口,FOCI是第二喜欢的纯CPO标的

不,$AAOI 主要是可插拔业务敞口。但他们在CPO方面也有大量敞口,这就是我加上「光子学」这个词的原因。对我来说,第二喜欢的纯CPO敞口标的是FOCI。

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@awodias No, $AAOI is primarily pluggable exposure. But they have large exposure to CPO too, hence why I included the word photonics. Second favorite pure play CPO exposure would be FOCI for me.

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看多$JBL$SIVE

2027年上半年1.6T可插拔厂商如$JBL将受益,$SIVE有未披露合作伙伴

2027年上半年所有1.6T可插拔厂商如 $JBL 都会受益。可能Innolight/易飞扬和其他可插拔厂商也会被纳入。我们很快就会知道,因为 $SIVE 说他们正在与未披露的可插拔厂商合作。2027年下半年所有主要CPO规模化应用将...

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@ChizaramNelo H1 2027 all the 1.6T pluggable players like $JBL. Maybe Innolight/Eoptolink and other pluggable players are added too. We'll find out soon since $SIVE said there were undisclosed pluggable players they're working with. H2 2027 for all the main CPO scale up applications from

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看多$SIVE$AAOI

$SIVE 是仅次于AAOI的最爱CPO光子学股票,对冲基金声称CPO应用是虚假的

$SIVE 是我在AAOI之后最喜欢的CPO/光子学股票。部分原因是它是瑞典的,你们那里有喜剧演员提供娱乐。今天一个名为Protean Funds的新非技术对冲基金(可能在做空)上了电视,声称 $SIVE 的CPO应用是虚构的。

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$SIVE is my favorite CPO / photonics stock after AAOI. Partly because it's Swedish and you have entertainment from comedians over there. Today a new non-technical hedge fund called Protean Funds (likely shorting), went on air. To said $SIVE CPO applications are imaginary. https://t.co/5RvMnaiDI6

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看多$GOOGL

技术分析大多无意义,基本面最重要,曾在156美元看多谷歌

我过去常在图表上画一些愚蠢的东西,比如宝可梦,来调侃人们做技术分析的方式。因为大多数时候,技术分析实际上没有任何意义,基本面才是最重要的!那张喷火龙的照片是我在156美元时对 $GOOGL 的看涨判断。

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@dong7da7 I used to draw silly things on charts like Pokemon on charts to joke about how people do TAs. Because most of the time, technical analysis doesn’t actually mean anything, since fundamentals are the most important! That Charizard photo was my $GOOGL callout back at $156.

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